Monday 2 February 2009

Fraud at Satyam

(Published in Banking Services Chronicle March 2009)

Wealth can be generated at a rapid pace even through ethical means. This was a faith instilled in the Indian mind by the meteoric rise of the information technology (IT) sector. Narayanmurthy and his ilk became the guiding stars in the firmament of wealth creation. Brilliant minds were engaged in scoring music for the software symphonies. It seemed next only to heavenly bliss.

Until the fraud at Satyam shattered our faith in innocence. Though IT angels are bright still, one of the brightest fell. B Ramalinga Raju, the founder of Satyam Computer Services, was no more the gentleman he was supposed to be. There was some saving grace in the fact that at least he confessed to the fraud he committed. But even the confession now seems to be a thread in the web of lies Satyam has weaved for itself.

Whether it was the fudging of balance sheets, as he made it out to be, or a blatant pilfering of the company’s money, the bottom line is that faith in Indian business has been shaken. People would become cautious especially of family-run businesses so that there is no repeat of siphoning off of funds to pure family entities like Maytas Properties and Maytas Infra.

We are forced to ask if corporate governance has any maturity worthy of turning ourselves into a developed country. The so-called independent directors have made a mockery of themselves. If professionalism can reach its nadir in the fourth largest IT company of India, one wonders what happens at ordinary mortal companies.

The auditors have also come under scrutiny. The Satyam scam is being branded as India’s Enron. If the fraud at the American energy company led to the demise of Arthur Andersen, the current crisis has raised questions on the integrity of Price Waterhouse, the Indian arm of giant auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers.

It is not enough that conman Raju languishes in Chanchalguda jail of Hyderabad. Foolproof measures need to be implemented to cleanse the system as a whole. But above all, we need to take a lesson in ethics. Only then can our success dream of enjoying some kind of permanence.

Tuesday 6 January 2009

High time Pakistan acted

(Published in Banking Services Chronicle February 2009)

It is evident that no amount of evidence will suffice for Pakistan to agree that it is sponsoring terrorism, whether by omission or commission. The knee-jerk reaction of any wrongdoer is to deny that the wrong act has been perpetrated. In case that is not possible at all, as in the case of 26/11, the next best thing is to distance oneself from the act.

Pakistan may have “doubts” whether the persons involved in the act were from there. But the world this time is not ready to give a sympathetic hearing to it. This in spite of our neighbour’s best attempt to blow things out of proportion. If our external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee makes any strong statement, it begins to cry “escalation” wolf.

Our neighbour should rest assured that bombing Pakistan would be the last thing India would resort to. They are no Gaza and we are no Israel. And targeted bombing, if people suggest that, is not easy as the world learnt when the US attacked rogue nations. Besides, India seems to be in no hurry as we are yet to impose even sanctions.

India would continue, it appears, to put its diplomatic foot forward, reminding the world how the “epicentre of terrorism” is a global threat. There would be more of talks and less of action. Somewhere in our Gandhian unconscious, we still think non-violence is the best means to tackle terrorism.

But any soft stance from India should not make Pakistan complacent. At some point of time it has to make a strong decision. The “failed state” status it has obtained has been bred by its confused stance. The country has allowed both state and non-state actors to kick it as a football.

The leaders – both civilian and military – in our neighbouring country need to rise to the occasion. They must rescue their own country from falling into the abyss of despair. They need to guide their citizens to make their country a better place to live in. Needless to say, the effort would make India and the world all the happier.

Thursday 18 December 2008

Light Dims on Iraq

It is the beginning of the end of what started on March 20, 2003. If one goes by duration alone, the Iraq War is well comparable to Second World War (WW II). But the similarity perhaps ends there itself. For, the two contesting sides here were hugely unequal. It was more of an occupation of Iraq by multinational forces, chiefly the American and the British. Besides, Germany and Japan were nations strong enough to rebuild themselves from scratch. A shattered and divided Iraq can hardly be seen possessing the same capabilities.

The occupation of Iraq has been controversial right from the beginning. George W Bush attacked Iraq on the pretext that it possessed weapons of mass destruction. But the inspections made by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) later revealed that this was a hoax call made by the Americans. Bush later changed tack and accused the then Iraqi president Saddam Hussein of harbouring and supporting Al-Qaeda terrorists. But this charge too was based more on apprehension than on any solid evidence.

Several analysts felt that the US had uppermost on its mind Iraq’s massive oil reserves, estimated to be the third largest in the world. The issue has been contentious ever since the oil industry was nationalized in Iraq in 1972. But the US really got angry when Saddam switched the oil sales from dollar to euro in 2000. However, the US was discreet enough to avoid any such allegations or even connotations. It is said that even the change of the name of the operation was a sort of hand-washing. Operation Iraqi Liberation had OIL as its acronym, and was therefore renamed Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Perhaps the only ground on which the US invasion could be sympathized with, though not necessarily justified, was the outrageous abuses perpetrated by the dictator Saddam. During his rule of more than two decades he had killed and tortured thousands of Iraqi citizens. He had gassed and killed thousands of Kurds in the mid-eighties. He had brutally repressed Shia and Kurdish uprisings following the 1991 Gulf war. Besides, a campaign of repressing and displacing the Marsh Arabs had been going on for 15 years in Southern Iraq.

One wonders if the US has achieved its purpose of liberating or freeing Iraq. It seems to be more out of political and economic compulsion that the US has signed the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). US ambassador Ryan Crocker and Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari have agreed that the US combat forces will withdraw from “Iraqi cities, villages and localities” no later than June 30, 2009. Further, the American forces will withdraw from all Iraqi territory by the end of 2011.

What has prompted this withdrawal? The war was leading nowhere and has discredited the Bush regime to a large extent. Things are getting out of control in Afghanistan and deserve much more attention. Besides, Barack Obama has never been a votary of this war and in any case would have ended it, or at least begun its end, once he came to power.

Economically, the war is proving to be a millstone around the American neck. The US has spent nearly one trillion dollars on this war. At a time when stimulus and bailout packages are the need of the hour, even the largest economy can hardly afford spending a billion dollars a day merely trying to improve the lot of a country thousands of miles away geographically and still farther culturally.

So the US is ready to move out. Nearly six years of occupation has led to hardly any positives except for removing tyrant Saddam from the scene. In Saddam, however, Iraq has also lost its most potent unifying force. What the Americans are leaving is a weakened federation of 18 provinces, elections for 14 of which are scheduled to be held on Jan 31. Iraq is a house divided. The Sunni minority does not see eye to eye with the 60-odd per cent Shia majority. Moqtada Sadr sings his own tune through his Mahdi Army.

Ethnically, the Kurds still remain a disgruntled lot. The future of the Kirkuk province remains precarious. The daily newspaper of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has accused the Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of creating Isnad or “Support Councils”, which are tribally-based private militias. They are supposed to be a personal instrument of his power engaged in curbing the Kurds. Asked the newspaper, “Who can tell the difference between Saddam’s al-Quds army and Nouri al-Maliki’s Support Councils?”

There seems to be no proper consensus on a law for oil, the crucial commodity on which Iraq has traditionally relied for 95 per cent of its exports. Moreover, a collapse in global oil prices will only deter the country further from leveraging on this mineral.

Lack of friendly neighbours does not help Iraq’s case either. Iran, which may be a nuclear power by 2012, should be in favour of a weak federal Iraq under Shiite leadership. Syria on the other hand favours a unitary state. So should Turkey, so that Kurdistan does not rear its head.

Nearly six years into the war, Iraq seems to be groping in the dark. Lakhs of its citizens have been killed and nearly 5 million, or 16 per cent of its population, displaced. The Americans, who promised to hold the torch, are gradually dimming it.

Thursday 11 December 2008

26/11

(Published in Banking Services Chronicle January 2009)

Dear reader,

Wish you a happy New Year! But even as we wish you happiness, it is difficult to forget the sad past we have witnessed in recent times. First, it was the global financial meltdown symbolised by the collapse of Lehman brothers. But I don’t consider that to be too big a crisis. As long as one is alive and in good health, one can strive to overcome poverty.

What I am concerned much deeper about is the second and far graver crisis. 26/11. When terrorism brought us to our knees. It seemed to be the culmination of the bomb blasts carried out across the country so frequently that one forgets the statistical trivia — how many cities, how many blasts, how many lives lost?

It is truly alarming when the number of lives lost becomes for us a part of the statistical trivia. And it leads me to two conclusions — we are either a callous society or an effete one. Callousness is on the rise with our material pursuits often overriding emotional and spiritual ones. But it has not gone to the extent that our quest for a northward GDP and per capita income has detached us from our near and dear ones. We still love them and care for them. Moreover, even a callous, purely money-minded person would love oneself at least. Terrorism threatens even this love.

Which means we are an effete society deservingly represented by an effete government. We are fond of celebrating secularism but unwilling to labour for its maintenance. We are good at gathering intelligence but poor at disseminating it and poorer at acting on it promptly. We have lost the power of non-violence and we are yet to acquire the power of the strong arm.

This is a wake-up call for us. We have to fight the enemy whether it is within the country or without. And we must be prepared for all kinds of warfare — military, psychological, economic or educational. A bunch of misguided people should not be allowed to hold the world to ransom.

Whichever path we choose, act we must. Heed to the alarm. Don’t press the snooze off and sleep until another attack wakes us up.

Predicting Stock Market

(Published in Banking Services Chronicle December 2008)

We are in an age when every Tom, Dick and Harry talks about the stock market and the Sensex. “How much is the Sensex at?” has become a question as ubiquitous as “What’s the score?” asked when India plays cricket. There are opinions and even convictions on how the share market will perform in the days to come.

But the men who really matter don’t seen to have a clue. Our economist-Prime Minister confesses he does not understand how the share markets behave. Our finance minister too takes recourse in highlighting the fact as to how strong India is on its economic fundamentals. The ship of the Indian economy is more or less on an even keel. It may at worst lurch but it won’t sink.

Who then knows about the stock market? It is a question perhaps as difficult to answer as the one about God’s existence. In the Indian tradition sages say that those who tell about God don’t really know about Him; those who know don’t tell. The share market knowledge too has parallels to the Divine conundrum.

Predicting the Sensex is much like astrological predictions. Charlatans abound in this realm. As one prediction after another is shattered when confronted with reality, people have started losing faith in the stock market pundits. Some say astronomy is a science; astrology is not.

Similarly, studying the economy is a science. Predicting it is not. Predicting the stock market is especially not.

In such a scenario it is very difficult to say who will salvage the world from the economic crisis. It is also difficult to say who will spark hope at the end of the tunnel seeing which the stock markets may surge. Whether it is Republican McCain or Democrat Obama, both will find the going equally tough.

It appears only time will heal a sick global economy. Depression is a virus that goes away if the economy takes care of its health. But the virus doesn’t get out in a day.

Sub-Prime Crisis

(Published in Banking Services Chronicle November 2008)

The sub-prime crisis in the US – a crisis created by risky debts turning bad – had already started making its presence felt in India from January. Markets went down as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out money from the capital market. But there was some light at the end of the tunnel. Today, with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing financial turmoil across the world, the world seems to be groping in the dark.

How did all this happen? It is a clear case of greed overpowering discreetness among the financial engineers. Since banks in the US were flush with liquidity, they looked for avenues where the surplus could be employed. Real estate was a booming sector. So banks started offering loans to anyone and everyone without being too concerned about their credentials – a category that came to be known as “sub-prime borrowers”. Since the loans were considered riskier, a higher rate of interest was charged.

The story of greed might not have been so tragic if things had stopped ihere. In their pursuit of making more money, the mortgages of land and house were packaged as portfolios and sold further. Even the role of credit agencies like Moody’s and Standard & Poor is suspect in that they rated the derivatives thus obtained as not too risky. The game went further. There were Credit Default Swaps which hedged the risks of some but multiplied those of others.

Thus there was a chain of investment built on the same underlying assets, viz real estate. But excess of anything is bad. The real estate sector busted. And the sub-prime borrowers, in keeping with the rationale of their nomenclature, began to default on their loans. And the ball of financial performance was set rolling downward, much like the stone in the Sisyphean myth, but with far more negative consequences.

When the Titanics of the financial world start sinking, it is but natural that the mood across the world is sombre. Some believe that this is the worst phase for the world economy since the Great Depression of 1929.

Should we therefore mourn? Remember it is the darkest before dawn. The financial world will show resilience though it may take about a year for broad daylight to come back.

Sorrow of Bihar

(Published in Banking Services Chronicle October 2008)

In our childhood the textbooks taught us that the river Kosi was the “sorrow of Bihar”. Our textbooks have a bad reputation for being outdated or irrelevant. It was somewhat in this light that we took the epithet given to Kosi. It was only as much real for us as Hwang-Ho being the “sorrow of China.”

But this August millions of people in north-eastern Bihar witnessed a doomsday scenario first hand. We were jolted out of our stupor and made to realise how near-extinct facts given in our textbooks can come alive anytime. The Kosi flood, approriately declared a “national calamity”, is probably the worst recorded in the history of modern India.

The media, though somewhat late, acquainted the nation with the veritable seas formed on land. Supaul, Madhepura, Araria and Purnia have become household names. We were shown how destruction is only a matter of days in vast swathes of land. We saw how technology is still in its infancy when it comes to tackling the might of nature. We witnessed how the goons and the greedy valued money over lives. There was also the tragi-comic element of politicians scoring brownie points in this hour of peril.

The water may have started receding and the land even dried by the time you read this. But the months to come will be a challenge for the Nitish Kumar government, whose good deeds have been literally washed away by the floods. Providing refuge to the deprived millions is not an easy job. Controlling epidemics that may break out in the aftermath of the flood will not be easy either.

That is for the short term. In the long term, there are several pressing questions on which all of us must ponder. One, is the course changed by the river going to remain so in the years or decades to come? Two, do we have embankments enough to check the rivers from becoming a curse? Three, is it enough to build embankments without caring for maintenance? Four, do we need to control rivers or manage them? And finally, if a disaster occurs, shouldn’t we have an agile response system in place?