2002: Year of Hope

(Published in Banking Services Chronicle January 2002)

Happy New Year! Welcome to 2002, a palindrome. Yes, didn’t you notice it? It reads the same whether you move your eyes from left to right or right to left. That brings hope. Hope that this symmetry, this balance will get reflected in the events and the atmosphere that go on to shape the year.

When you check your mailbox — real or virtual — at the turn of the year, there will be short and sweet messages. Or, “shrt n swt”, if they come through SMS on your mobile. Irrespective of the mode of communication, they will be messages of hope. Hope that a tumultuous 2001 — earthquake, depression, Sep 11 and its aftermath, pink slips, etc — does not get repeated.

Let us hope that peace returns to the world. The mindset of retaliation is a dangerous one. It will not end with simply a crackdown on the Taliban and their eradication. What is needed is a recognition of the meaning of “peaceful co-existence”. A recognition that you cannot develop at the expense of others. We are in a traders’ world. And it is always in the seller’s interest that the buyer have purchasing power.

Disputes like Kashmir need to be resolved. And pragmatically so. You can keep on fighting for a piece of earth and ruin yourself. On the other hand, if you keep your ears close to the ground and decide on the basis of reality bytes, you can do justice to the people. And this applies to all the parties involved. It’s good to be emotional. But rabble-rousing is a different game altogether. Let us hope that Kashmir once again becomes a “cool” place.

On the economic front, all eyes turn towards the barometer called Sensex. The good news is that after being thoroughly humiliated for months, it has once again started looking up. The worst therefore seems to be over. And if the Sensex begins to climb, it is a welcome development. Not so much because it is an indicator of performance — in fact, most of the industries are still reeling under the burden of worklessness. But because it is an indicator of market sentiments. An upwardly mobile sensex is a smile on the lips of the investors. A proof that hope and conviction are back in the game.

The infotech industry is still undergoing a crisis. But reports say that India will start seeing signs of a slow recovery in the second half of 2002 and a strong revival in 2003. It is important that we realise the long-term potential of this industry.

In fact, the best known names of India Inc are already doing so. Jamshyd Godrej, CK Birla, NR Narayanamurthy and others are coming together to launch “Shiksha India”. It is an ambitious Rs 500-cr programme to computerise 57,000 schools and provide connectivity, content and coaching over the next five years.

Basic education is even more important than computers. And here too a Constitutional Amendment has infused hope. Our legislators have finally agreed that it is a fundamental right. Better late than never. But the proof of the pudding lies in its taste. Implementation will be the key. And for this the govt, the NGOs and the people will have to work together.

Hope also needs to be generated in the health sector. We have to spread AIDS awareness so that people can take preventive measures. For, AIDS is a dreadful disease. It is a torment for the one who is afflicted with it. But it also has economic consequences. International Labour Organisation (ILO) studies in several sub-Saharan African countries indicate that HIV/AIDS may reduce the rate of economic growth by as much as a fourth over a 20-year period.

Above all, we must not forget that hope is a part of sportsman spirit. Let us be imbued with that. So that we don’t tamper the ball and spoil its symmetry. So that we don’t take biased decisions and upset the balance. Hope my hopes are not belied.